Yes, Ron Paul is an online favorite and he has at least achieved a noteworthy footnote status in American political history with the amazing internet fundraising success by his supporters working on their own outside his campaign or control. Still, his great momentum in the polls moving up from less than 1% to the high single digits realistically can not translate into victory in the front-loaded 2008 primary schedule. There simply is not enough time for the support from internet savvy Ron Paul advocates to broaden across the voting public and mature into enough primary victories for Paul to become the Republican nominee for President. Second, even if this was possible he would have another series of difficult obstacles to overcome in running against Hillary Clinton, the probable Democrat nominee.
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How Economic & Foreign Policy Events Outside the Political Process Could Still Give Ron Paul Victory as the GOP Nominee and President of the United States - Think back to your history. If you remember, a majority of Americans did not want to get involved in World War Two but the sneak Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor changed public opinion over night in favor of war. Prior to the War Between the States, the citizens of North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas and Maryland did not support Southern secession but Lincoln’s call for troops, war and outright invasion of the already independent Confederate states caused a shift in public opinion in the upper Southern states in favor of secession and the rest is history. The bottom line is perilous outside events can move public opinion and shift voter sentiment far more than any political campaign or candidate especially when most voters assume all politicians are lying anyway.
He then comes up with different scenarios that could happen in the coming months such as (my comments in italics):
- A Bush Strike Against Iran & Resulting Oil Shock To the World Economy: “This action could win Ron Paul the GOP nomination and the general election if it takes place before or early in the primary season.” Frankly, I think that a strike on Iran could have the following to results: (1) Americans rally behind the president and thus the Republican party, (2) Americans have had enough and will support the Democratic nominee whomever she may be.
- A Collapse of Nuclear Armed Pakistan & the Musharraf Dictatorship. I simply don’t see this would help Ron Paul in any way shape or form. Again, Americans would sooner turn to someone they know from a party they know than to an independent candidate who hasn’t been any more than a Congressman, not a Senator, not a Secretary, not a (First Lady), not a Governor.
- Turkish Invasion of Kurdish Iraq & Control of Oil Reserves: “If Turkey is willing to invade and accept the diplomatic consequences, they probably will end up driving to and controlling the oil rich city Kerkuk and half the oil reserves of Iraq. Again, this failure of Neocon foreign policy will benefit the candidacy of Ron Paul.” Although I believe that Turkey should’ve acted, it has not done so and I frankly don’t think that she’ll do so now. They’ve waited too long.
- A Possible American Dollar Collapse: “It will happen sooner or later as our aging demographics and current government debt load guarantee the dollar is dying as a stable currency and store of value. The only question is will the dollar death be long and lingering or end in a death rattle of financial panic as everyone tries to exit the dollar door at the same time. Ron Paul has spent is career calling for a return to the gold standard for the dollar and an end to the Federal Reserve creation of paper money. If the dollar downtrend turns into a panic, who else but Ron Paul has the real solution to the problem.” Those who call for a return to the gold standard aren’t taken seriously by many people. He’ll be ridiculed, not praised as a savior.
In short? I don’t see it happening.
Polls are lagging indicators that mostly reflect name recognition. Ron Paul still has the time to make up the difference now that he has a warchest comparable with any other Republican candidate. The big shifts in the polls demonstrate that most voters are not particularly firm in their commitment to the top candidates which leaves Dr. Paul an opportunity to steal them away. Additionally, none of the current polls of Republican voters from the last primary season are measing the support that Dr. Paul has from Reagan-Democrats, independents, first time voters, and other disaffected individuals. The sheer scale of Dr. Paul’s fund raising (which comes mostly from small personal donations) illustrates the pool of popular support he has tapped into.
Don’t see it happening either; the primaries are coming up soon and he’s far behind the other, better known Republicans. Plus, his views seem at odds with many of the Republican base.
You said, “Those who call for a return to the gold standard aren’t taken seriously by many people. He’ll be ridiculed, not praised as a savior.”
I say, “Ronald Holland does not support Paul and may never do so because he doesn’t have the intellectual capability to understand what Dr. Paul has said.” Ron Paul does not call for a return to the gold standard. He only insists that gold and silver be allowed as legal tender since that is what the US Constitution says.
I personally think he is using the Rebublican ticket to gather as much name recognition as possible and to be able to express his positions in debates. If he gets the GOP nomination great, although we all realize this is all but impossible. If he doesent, and continues to get such incredible support and encouragement from his supporters, he will have no choice but to run as an independent and win the election
Paul won wednesdays CNN youtube debate according to CNN’s website JUST like he won almost every one of the TV debates…so, is it me or is there a major media distortion going on?
RP is a first tier candidate- it’s obvious if you truly gauge his support based on donations- 10 million this quarter without the corporate buyout.
Everyone I know in a multitude of states reports massive visible support- RP signs everywhere etc…
Don’t let the media fool you as they quote old-fashioned landline telephone polls of 300 people…
Socialism Sucks !!!
I hope that my country will give up the quest for mediocrity.
I am voting for Ron Paul.
Well said Vincent!
Telephone polls of 600 people don’t mean jack sh*t…
It really pisses me off when they call them ’scientific’…
Many presidential contenders were polling single digits in November and later became president.
Since he’s the most qualified and honest person in the race he would be a shoe-in if there was objective coverage of his policies on par with the other candidates.
However, since Ron Paul is not in the back pockets of the corporate manipulators and his authentic interest is to serve the American People he will never get his message out through traditional sources.
The “ace in the hole” for Ron Paul is the historically unprecedented grass roots support he has, and in my humble opinion, will prove to be enough to carry him to the White House.
Bottom line: America wants the crooks out of Washington!
Tom
Corvallis, OR 97330
Since I don’t agree with Tom on whether or not the grass roots support will be enough, I think the big question is what will Ron Paul supporters do if he doesn’t get the GOP nomination? Will they stay home, or grudgingly support a different candidate, or try to draft him as an Independent or Libertarian candidate?
I support Ron Paul, but I don’t think he will be nominated. The fact is, the US has too many non thinking people voting on single issues. Abortion comes to mind, and the candidate that can convince he is most pro-life will get their nod. But… the voter doesn’t take time to think…the Republicans have had control of the either the Supreme Court, the Legislative or Executive branch for the past 30 years…they have done nothing. They scream how they are against abortion…but does anyone remember if any of the candidates actually tried to stop it? Why is it still law of the land?
Ron Paul has introduced and reintroduced the Sanctity of Life Act (including in the current Congress). If passed, this Bill would recognize the personhood of all unborn babies by declaring that “human life shall be deemed to exist from conception.” The Bill also recognizes the authority of each State to protect the lives of unborn children. In addition, this Bill would remove abortion from the jurisdiction of the Court, thereby nullifying the Roe v. Wade decision. The Bill would also deny funding for abortion providers. In plain language, the Bill would overturn Roe v. Wade and end abortion-on-demand.
Abortion is not on my top list of issues, but if it were (like most the Religious Right)..I would think RP would be taken seriously. Instead, they look up to Rudy, Mitt, Huck, GWB, who only promise to appoint the right judges. Yes..Most Americans will never be accused of deep thinkers.
Of course he can become President. A better question is, will he become President? I am a hardcore Paul supporter for more reasons than I can count, but among the two most important reasons - First, it is easier to deal with the pain of an economic retraction earlier rather than later, and there is no possible way that our monetary system coupled with our foreign policy and entitlement system is stable. And second, there as no other way to substantially shrink the size of government except by shrinking both the foreign as well as domestic spending agenda. Ron Paul is the only candidate that understands the only viable mechanism for decreasing the size and scope of unchecked Federal bloat is to take away everyone’s goodies.
But I will say, that I don’t think that just because it is in the MSM’s interest to produce polls, that they are reliable leading indicators. Also, many of them are flawed and partially invalidated by their inability to draw a random sample. If one looks at all of the evidence, money raised, number of doners, press mentions, straw poll results, campaign volunteers, rally attendance, and internet interest. It is clear Ron Paul is stuck the heat of a three-way battle for the nomination. I think it is clear that 3 relatively distinct positions have been staked out in the GOP and are defensible until two disparate voting blocks converge on a candidate, which won’t happen until deep into the nomination process.
Paul has the socially conservative, fiscally responsible voters. Giuliani has the fiscally conservative hawks. Romney has the socially conservative hawks. Some of these positions overlap, some don’t. For instance, If you are predominantly a fiscal conservative, then whether you support Paul or Giuliani depends on your ideas about social conservatism and the war. If you are a social conservative, whether you support Paul or Romney depends on your ideas about government spending and the war. If you support, aggression Paul is out; If you support defense, Paul’s your only choice. If you just look at doners, which no doubt must be a reflection of total support:
Giuliani 25,000 doners in the third quarter
Romney 27,000 doners in the third quarter
Paul 38,000 doners on Novermber 5th
I would say that with Paul’s growing campaign, it is likely that by the end of this year he will be neck and neck with the big money candidates in total number of money doners (remeber they have accumulated more doners earlier in the nomination process). The difficult part is factoring in the relative value of off-account support. Paul obviously has more boots on the ground, but how does that compare with the MSM subsidy of the MSM poll winners, which the MSM use to boost their station ratings? That’s impossible to tell. But, despite the fact that the GOP tends to be hawkish, that vote is getting split. Because of the divide between social and liberal conservatives. This fissure is not likely to to converge on one candidate until after Feb 5, so Paul has as good a chance as anyone in the GOP nomination process.
Vote Ron Paul.
Ron Paul is indeed good at raising money…but if that were what mattered then Phil Gramm would have ousted Bill Clinton back in ‘96.
It all comes down to votes, and I continue to see that Paul is well behind the major Republican contenders in all the polls.
Betty White will be president before Ron Paul.
Ron Paul is not talking about returning to the Gold standard. He wants to allow competing currencies including Gold and Silver.
You can’t fit Pauls workable solutions into 60 second sound bytes. You have to read them. Unless you want more out of control spending and big govrnment, Paul is the only choice.
I dont understand McCain and other people calling RP’s foreign policy isolationist. That is ridiculous. RP is not talking about closing embassies, he is talking about closing the military bases and bringing home the troops we have spread around 130 different countries. Are all countries and nations building military installation around the world to police them? I dont think so. They can just use ours. All RP is sayins is stop policing the world and bring them home, we dont need troops in Korea for 50 years now. The Koreans would have probably been united and the loon overthrown by now if we didnt meddle in what they should or should not agree on. Get it straight McCain and all you isolationist phobes. Free trade, commerce, travel and friendship with all nations. Entangling alliances with none! Defend our borders, not the borders of other countries. Sounds very reasonable to me. Heck, it is friggin expected when dealing with your neighbor. Friendly, trade, commerce, but you wouldn’t tell them how to run their house right? duh.
I have faith in Ron Paul as our president because of your first line:
“Yes, Ron Paul is an online favorite and he has at least achieved a noteworthy footnote status in American political history with the amazing internet fundraising success by his supporters working on their own outside his campaign or control.”
This my friends is evidence of self responsibility. It is rare for people to put forth energy in electing someone who they REALLY WANT as president and not some convenient mainstream candidate who as usual talks the talk but trips up the walk. As a funny property of human nature nobody ever takes any action until we suffer. Given the fact our world is still going down the drain more people are waking up and saying, “NO” to the current state of decay.
People are opening up the minds and looking beyond the fundraisers, shows, and glitz of the money backed candidates to bring back the role of government in it’s true form - electing true leaders. I say government is a dying fad though as people move towards self governance and self responsibility.
Just remember this - whenever you hear or see something you don’t like about this world remember who is responsible for it - take a look in the mirror.
I always find it funny that the media only shows the polls that show RP with a disadvantage. He has won over half the straw polls, and they mean just as much as the phone polls.
But polling the pro-war “base” which was decimated in Nov 06 surely wouldnt give RP that good of polling numbers, but that doesnt really represent the base anymore. After the mass exodus last year the old right are coming back into the fold to support this anti-war republican.
These numbers are in no way reflective of the actual voting base. Matter of fact if you look at these numbers the so called “top tier” where given these titles before the race even began.
“top tier” and “electable” only means they have been anointed by special interests. Why do you think the Democrats are doing so well.
Ron Paul has a very broad base of support, and the donation number reflect he is winning by a big margin. There is no reason to assume that with the relatively small donations coming into the campaign, and the staggering number of donations from new supporters I dont see how anyone could donate money, then not vote which I assume everyone if counting on.
A better indication the Dr. Paul is threatening the status quo is they threw in the back up candidate huckleberry.
This is much bigger then people want to think, and the way you know if look at all the misinformation being thrown Ron Paul’s way. That speaks volumes to his real candidacy.
RON PAUL in 08!
We can only hope he wins. I’ve given him several hundred dollars towards that end.
When are we going to get an objective article from Michael showing the ways that it may be possible, rather than a refutation of someone else’s?
Thanks in advance Michael, keep me posted!
Oh, BTW, Ron Paul is on track for another $500,000 today. He is ahead of Huckabee by $7,000,000.00 for the quarter.
http://www.rudysreadinlist.com
http://www.ronpaulblimp.com
http://www.ronpaulgraphs.com
http://www.ronpaul2008.com
And I’m sorry for spamming! I’m just tired of the overall negative slant you’ve had for Paul here as of late.
It’s like my mom used to say, if you don’t have anything nice to say, than don’t say anything at all. You’re doing a real disservice to the 150,000+ Americans who have donated to the campaign this year, not to mention the tens of thousands of boots-on-the-ground supporters or the 70% of Americans who actually want out of Iraq.
Again, thanks in advance to Michael for your upcoming objective analysis of how a Paul victory could happen!
> Still, his great momentum in the polls moving up from less
> than 1% to the high single digits realistically can not
> translate into victory in the front-loaded 2008 primary
> schedule.
If you believe our mainstream media’s polls, you’d probably also believe that Hussein was building a nuclear weapon, had a stockpile of weapons of mass destruction, and was working hand in hand with binLaden to destroy the World Trade Center.
The United States does not have a functioning free media anywhere, except one place - the Internet and that’s why Ron Paul is so popular there.
After 5 years of blatant dishonesty in US mainstream media, why would you continue to think it’s credible?
You may think this is all tin foil hat nonsense, but neither I, nor anybody in my family, nor any of my friends have ever been called to do a poll. Have you ever been polled? Do you know anybody that has been?
The idea that Ron Paul is behind the polls is perhaps the biggest lie in this race. Ron Paul has led in virtually every poll. He is winning the large majority of nation-wide straw polls, he is winning the classroom polls by students across the country. Not only that, but he has won virtually every internet poll conceivable. He has even won the poll according to Zogby.
Ron Paul not winning the polls? Why would anyone try to facilitate a lie, or is it simply that you’re operating on old data and just failing to keep up with the times?
http://www.thecaseforronpaul.com
The man is winning every Straw Poll across the country, so the question remains to be asked. Who are these goofballs in CNN polling? Rockefellar staffers?
Jesus loves Ron Paul!!!!!!
“another series of difficult obstacles to overcome in running against Hillary Clinton”
such as? I don’t see it.
besides, this is when all the magic happens. Dr Paul needs 1300 delegates. watched a football game the other day, the stadium had 39,000 people. that’s a 1,000 more than donated on Nov 5th. 17,000 of which were new donors. how many new supporters there will be on dec 16th? at his rate of growth, with all the money he has just begun to spend, not to mention his strong standing in NH, IA, and SC, combined with the enthusiasm that is abundant in the grassroots campaign. you’ve got a winner.
The first primary debate with 4million viewers and they basically leave Dr Paul out of the debate. What a disgrace. If the powers that be think they will maintain their standing by trying to ignore and discredit the man, they have another thing coming.
Read this:
http://www.lewrockwell.com/ostrowski/ostrowski83.html
if you want to know why Hillary versus Paul would be the greatest race ever. And why Clinton doesn’t stand a chance.
i couldn’t edit my posting so…
besides, Ron Paul is right about terrorism. He shouldn’t lose.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig8/beito2.html
Can Ron Paul become President? Of course.
Will he? Of course not.
Don’t stay whether to pray for Ron Paul and for the salvation of America and the whole world!
Could Ron Paul win? Yes, if he would make Dennis Kucinich his running mate. They both appear to be on the same wave length.
Of course they would have to check with the mother ship first!
Ron Paul doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of ever becoming president.
Well written post.
Jeff
can he win yes. will he win it is possible. Kerry was at 4% in these “scientific” polls in december and won the nomination.
Re: can he win yes. will he win it is possible. Kerry was at 4% in these “scientific” polls in december and won the nomination.
and all the comments about scientific polls.
The polls aren’t called scientific because they measure future support, or even how elections would turn out if was held today.
If you saw a poll that said Ron Paul was at some low level of support then you can fairly sure you could keep calling every person in the area of the poll was measuring and no significantly greater number of people would say they were planning to vote for Ron Paul.
Regardless I think polls are a fairly good indicator of how a candidate will do in a state when the polls are conducted close to the elections. Kerry was polling ahead of Dean in Iowa before the election.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/iowa_polls.html
If you’re looking for a candidate that’s similar to Ron Paul from 2004 it would be Howard Dean not Kerry. Both Dean and Paul’s support comes from dissatisfaction with their party’s position on Iraq, both have significant financial support and zealous supporters running the early election states and the internet making a lot of noise.
ron paul: “there’s a revolution happening out there, and i’m just lucky enough to be part of it!”
keep robbing the people of their wealth, waging war, and discourage dissent and you have a revolution.
“there is no way to peace, peace is the way”
how often do you have a chance to vote for peace?
don’t let this opportunity pass you by because you don’t “think” he can win. that attitude doesn’t work in real life, don’t pass it onto the public.
where are all the other candidates grassroots support? oh that’s right, they are the ones listening to the mainstream media.
decide for yourselves and take a stand.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
Mohandas Gandhi
“If you’re looking for a candidate that’s similar to Ron Paul from 2004 it would be Howard Dean not Kerry. Both Dean and Paul’s support comes from dissatisfaction with their party’s position on Iraq, both have significant financial support and zealous supporters ”
Dean’s campaign was superficial compared to the depth that Paul campaign represents.
Dean’s campaign went down quick once the media got their hands on him. They are having a hard time ignoring Paul.
With the straw Polls, record fundraising, Dec 16th, and the real results of Paul’s campaign shining through in the Primaries, things are going to get real interesting.
Just like the economy, the public is going to have to face reality.
It’s the message. And Paul has the voting record to prove he’s not attempting to decieve anyone.
Besides, he has the facts to back him up, and his supporters know it.
“Don’t see it happening either; the primaries are coming up soon and he’s far behind the other, better known Republicans. Plus, his views seem at odds with many of the Republican base.”
Tom - Dr. Paul is the only candidate that has momentum right now. Plus you have to consider that the other 7 candidates are going to split the regular GOP base (the people who voted for Bush in 2004).
Paul is bringing in newcomers, crossover Democrats, independents, and yes, conservatives frustrated at the GOP. It’s possible that he may end up with a plurality of votes in Iowa, and given NH independent streak he’ll win the state hands down. Publicity from these victories will give Paul the boost to win at least half of the states in Super Duper Tuesday.