For McCain It’s All About New Hampshire
November 18, 2007 by Michael van der Galiën
Back in 2000, Senator John McCain performed extremely well in the primary of New Hampshire: he beat favorite George W. Bush there, which meant a tremendous boost for his campaign. Both in support and in money that is. Now, in 2007, McCain’s once again betting on New Hampshire. He has to win that state; if he doesn’t, his campaign is basically over.
The bad news? Romney is leading… by far in the polls. The good news? Slowly but surely, the Senator from Arizona is closing the gap; he’s basically tied in the most recent polls with Rudy Giuliani. What’s more; New Hampshire supported McCain seven (almost eight) years ago. It shouldn’t be impossible for McCain to convince many of those who supported him last time to support him again.
In 1999 and 2000, McCain’s winning strategy was that he presented himself as a maverick. He was the straight-talker. This time around, however, he doesn’t present himself as the maverick candidate anymore. Instead, he relies on his military record / experience. Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani may all be people with quite some political experience, but they didn’t they’re not Vietnam War veterans.
Will it be enough for McCain? He’s rising in the polls, but Romney has built himself quite a base in NH. For now, I don’t see how he can possibly lose New Hampshire. Iowa may become difficult - it’ll be a race between him and Huckabee - but New Hampshire should be a sure victory for Romney. What’s more, if he doesn’t win NH and finishes second in Iowa, he might as well pull out of the race because he’ll definitely not win the nomination.
In other words: Romney can’t afford to lose in New Hampshire. This means that he’ll do whatever necessary to win it. He’s got more money than McCain, and he’s polling two times better than the Senator from Arizona at this point in time. If Romney doesn’t win New Hampshire, he only has himself to blame, for he starts out with a tremendous advantage.
McCain could make a comeback theoretically, but I don’t see it happening in reality.
McCain has the added advantage of sticking to the same position all the time. Several GOP candidates will spend some time strategizing their way out of their many policy decisions.
I’m happy to see John back in it despite his mom even tougher “straigth talk”.
Go, Johnny Mac. He was offstride when he tried to reinvent himself as a traditional conservative. Hopefully it’s not too late for a comeback. The only reason he still has a chance is because of a relatively weak GOP field- but I’ll take it.
The money will be a huge advantage for Romney. He’ll be able to buy a lot more air time for tv and radio ads, which will definitely hurt McCain. Romney’s money is also the primary reason he is winning in Iowa. If he is able to win both primaries, it may propel him into the nomination, as Republican donors jump on the bandwagon.
Romney’s betting on the slingshot effect. I’d wager against it.
I agree with kreiz
But, if McCain loses both New Hampshire and Iowa, he may be finished. I’m betting it will come down to Giuliani or Romney. McCain is too far behind in fundraising at this point to make up for lost ground.
Yeah, I think you’re right about McCain, krit. GOP regular really don’t like him (he appeals to independents like me). It’s probably still Giuliani’s to lose. I can’t see Romney taking it nationally though, even if he takes IA and NH.
[...] 19, 2007 by Pieter Dorsman Further to the Gazette’s earlier posting on John McCain, I think everyone who would value a return to integrity, honesty and decency in a GOP candidate [...]