The feverish media atmosphere generated by the potential Turkish invasion of northern Iraq is on its way to reaching almost Cuban Missile Crisis proportions. Even Prime Minister ErdoÄŸan has chastised certain Turkish media outlets for the manner in which they have covered the events of the past week. Having sold a lot of newspapers due to the most recent deaths and abduction of many out-numbered Turkish conscripts, there is little doubt that this type of media coverage will continue to carry the legacy of William Randolph Hearst for at least another few weeks.
It is the ambition of this observer to approach the question of a possible Turkish assault on N. Iraq in a way that touches on a number of factors and possible scenarios, which will undoubtedly influence the decisions made in the very near future. In addition, two recently published pieces about the potential Turkish invasion by Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed, the general manager of Al-Arabiya television, and by Gareth Jenkins of the Jamestown Foundation offer a number of very compelling insights for consideration.
Military: Television images of green Turkish military trucks rolling towards the border and comments by the BBC that, “Turkey has deployed up to 100,000 soldiers, backed by tanks, fighter jets and helicopters, along the border” are somewhat meaningless; it is very seldom that the Turkish military is not massing at the border with Iraq. It is likely that this most recent heavy military buildup began at the end of spring 2007 and has been reported in the media to have escalated at different times in response to PKK activity. As the saga of Abdullah Ocalan’s pursuit and ultimate capture demonstrates, the Turkish military has had success in the past with bullying its neighbors (in that case Syria) by projecting military strength on their borders.
Unless they are completely gripped by hubris, General Büyükanıt and friends must have learned something from the US military’s haunting experience in Iraq and even the Israeli army’s most recent foray into southern Lebanon. With these two events in mind, it appears highly unlikely that the Turkish military could deal an enduring tactical blow to a very evasive and malleable guerrilla foe like the PKK. At the very least, the PKK can go underground in order to fight another day.
Furthermore, prime minister ErdoÄŸan must be very careful about the expectations he defines for any type of military venture. As George Bush has demonstrated over the course of his tumultuous tenure as president, the military expectations of the public can have serious political repercussions when deaths and casualties mount.
Northern Iraq, domestic: A significant percentage of Kurds have probably disassociated the PKK from the struggle for an independent Kurdistan. Nevertheless, the PKK still possesses a great historical legacy that includes funding-ties to governments and organizations, who traditionally oppose Turkey. Indeed, the PKK has been of great help to Iran and Syria in destabilizing Turkey and it is widely argued that the likes of Greece and Armenia have supported the PKK in the past. It is therefore little wonder that the relatively new Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has never appeared to have the ability to dislodge a political dinosaur like the PKK.
While the KRG and others are probably more widely associated with the fight for an independent Kurdish state at this time, a Turkish invasion of northern Iraq would probably blur this distinction. The presence of Turkish troops on Iraqi soil would likely increase sympathy among Kurds for the PKK cause. Assuming the Iraqi government in Baghdad proves incapable of providing any support, which would most likely be the case due to their current level of frailty, the Kurds in N. Iraq would gain even more resolve to pursue their own state in order to better protect their interests.
Turkey, domestic: An invasion of Iraq would almost certainly cause a very sharp rise in PKK sympathies among the large numbers of economically marginalized Kurds living both in the east of Turkey as well as the larger numbers living in Turkey’s western cities. This is a particularly scary thought if viewed in the context of the rising popularity of neo-fascist and nationalistic groups, which was most recently evidenced by the MHP gaining ground in the July parliamentary election. The AKP was a surprisingly popular choice of the Kurdish vote in July, and neither ErdoÄŸan nor Gül would want to compromise this vote or give the country’s right-wing any more reason to disrupt the social peace.
Conclusion: In the view of this observer, the numerous big-picture issues strongly rival the more widely-reported short-term political reasoning for a full-scale military assault in northern Iraq. An invasion would most likely further destabilize Iraq. It would furthermore cause social and political unrest within Turkey, which would not bode well for the political fortunes of the AKP. It is for this reason that such a large-scale invasion is quite unlikely. Like Gareth Jenkins, I believe it is much more realistic that there will be narrowly-focused commando raids and aerial strikes, if anything at all. This approach ultimately represents the safer political course for Turkey’s political leadership.
[...] are a couple of posts on this issue you might want to take a look at. This post at MVDG’s site summarizes the Iraqi, Turkish, and U. S. political issues at stake. Also, this editorial from [...]
[...] bloggers weigh in, courtesy of MemeOrandum: The Newshoggers; The Van Der Galiën Gazette; The Moderate [...]
Turkey continues to shoot itself in the foot. By addressing the Kurdish issue by purely military means it strengthens the Kurdish movement day by day. Imagine the numbers of young Kurdish youth who answered the call go to the mountains. The media are full of cliches and factually wrong figures and facts regarding the Kurdish Question in Turkey. The recruits are endless, believe me. It does not really matter what comments ‘experts’ or bloggers make about the Kurdish issue. At the end of the day unless there is a political solution it will continue to be Turkey’s biggest political issue and block to democratisation.
What is needed are brave men and women who have a vision. Not cowards who are hiding behind privalige and status and want the Kurds as an enemy to jusitfy their existance.
We need someone of courage who can lead Turkey to solve The Kurdish Question.
The PKK have again, offered a ceasefire and called for a peaceful settlement but it is the Turkish side that are not interested in peace. I hope that, is at least clear now. The Turkish side are not interested in peace. They have never been interested in peace. Peace is the Kurdish promise but seemingly, not just yet.
The best thing that any friend of Turkey could do, is to turn criticism onto the forces that continously block any moves for peace and away from the Kurdish Freedom Movement who try to defend themselves from policies of hatred and war.
Hevallo just stop it. You’re at your own blog defending an organization that’s labeled a terrorist organization by both the US and the EU so please understand that I don’t consider you to be a good advisor for Turkey.
That’s hardly conclusive evidence since contrary to the very definition of the term the US also called the Iranian military a terrorist organization.
O please.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying one way or the other about the PKK.
I’m sure they’ve done some bad stuff, and I’m sure the Turks have done some pretty bad some themselves. At times they could probably both be classified as having commited terrorism, if we take it at its literal meaning.
However, terrorism is mostly defined in Western civilization as something they do to us. We never commit terrorism, it’s always national defense, or some other BS.
[...] Michael Van Der Galien writes: Like Gareth Jenkins, I believe it is much more realistic that there will be narrowly-focused commando raids and aerial strikes, if anything at all. This approach ultimately represents the safer political course for Turkey’s political leadership. [...]
Who let these moral relativists in?
The PKK is not just a terrorist organization. They are a militant, revolutionary communist worker’s party with AK-47s dressing like Che Guevara! They don’t just believe in committing terrorism before they get power, but in using state terror to maintain power and to black out every scintilla of light in peoples’ lives until people under their thumb would rather die than live in the fascist-socialist hell they bring.
Nobody will miss the PKK when they are gone. Not the Kurdish government. Not the Kurds themselves. Unless the Turks invade. Then people will rise up in defense of the PKK. But if Turkey (a NATO member) plays things the same way that the US is playing things in Afghanistan and Talibanistan, then with some local assistance on the Iraqi side of the border, PKK could be decimated and survivors forced out of Iraq into Iran. May they be a plague upon the mullahs’ heads.
Have any of you been to southeastern Turkey or northern Iraq?
Well, you can judge all you like. The simple fact is that the majority of the Kurdish people do not see the PKK as a ‘terrorist’ organisation just as the majority of Black South Africans did not regard the ANC as a ‘terrorist’ organisation just because people who lived in far off countries and were not affected by the oppression that was inflicted by the oppressor countries, did.
They know who has been their defenders and they know that the ranks of the PKK are made up of their sons and daughters, cousins, uncles and aunts.
The PKK come from the Kurdish people and represent the aspirations of a large section of the Kurdish people.
So, please do not tell me about the label that Turkey hangs on the necks of Kurds as a way of demonising and therefore justifying torture, killings and forced depopulations of millions of people.
My only advise to you would be to go to Diyarbakir, Van, Sirnak, Mus, Dogubayazit and Hakkari and meet with the Kurdish people and tell them yourselves how you think that the PKK are ‘terrorists’. Tell them, because you’ve heard that Turkey says they are terrorists so this must be true and the US and European Governments, they all say you are ‘terrorists’ so I believe it. Go on. And see what they say to you!
They will be most kind and even embarrased. They will kindly and gently explain to you why the Turkish government calls them ‘terrorists’ and will explain the history of the Kurdish struggle for recognition of Kurdish identity. They will detail how the Turkish state have oppressed and suppressed Kurdish culture, language and political parties.
In the end in will be you that is embarrassed about how you could of possibly called these people, ‘terrorists’.
I am very proud to challenge the label of ‘terrorist’ against the Kurdish Freedom Struggle. And would call upon more people to do the same.
As many people saw through the label of ‘terrorist’ hung on the ANC so many see through the label on the PKK.
It actually is about a fundamental right that you as a liberal should support, the right of self determination.
Its always nice to see reporting when it comes from the actual area and is not just copied on desks from other articles and official pronouncements from the Turkish psychological warfare dept. This piece in the Time Magazine is especially enlightening.
http://time-blog.com/middle_east/2007/10/the_fog_of_war_in_northern_ira.html
Hevallo
One man’s terrorist is another’s freedom fighter, okay, so how does killing, murder, genocide, massacre, mayhem (whatever one chooses to call it) or more simply put, the premature death of fellow human beings by various forms of weaponary, further the cause of the Kurdish people? I’m scratching my head trying to figure out why it is necessary that armed young men, going into any area and shooting is going to solve a problem? From my witness it seems to create more!
Dear Pat,
Do you realize that your description would describe the U.S. Marines or the CIA for a great number of people in the world?
I suppose it’s comforting to know that they are doing this for “democracy” or the “global economy.”
Perspective (one man’s terrorist is another’s freedom fighter) is everything unless you are a cultural or political imperialist and are convinced that your way is the only way.
With that said, I am proud of my U.S. Marines. However, I also realize that they are responsible for a lot of killing, murder, genocide, massacre, mayhem….
Blastingcloud;
In answer, yes I do realize it. The point I was trying to make is that it won’t do the Kurds any good sneaking into Turkey and shooting up the place. Violence begets (or is that begats) more violence. This kind of violence on the relatively small scale will only make life more difficult in the long and short term for all the inhabitants of the area.
Understand that I was in the U.S.Army for 22 years, and in fact was a member of an advisor team to the Kurds and their Pesh Merga in 1975! (Back when then President Ford was in the White House saying to Americans in general that “No American Soldiers were in combat anywhere in the world!”) I know the area fairly well, and can pretty much guarantee that no amount of Kurdish irregular military activity will change the Turkish mindset. Basically the Kurds aren’t going to soothe the Turkish tiger by kicking it in the butt!
By the way, we were advising the Kurds in their fight against Saddam. This of course was before he became our “friend” when the Iran-Iraq war broke out and we supported Mr. Hussein with ELINT and Photographic intelligence to help him fight the Iranians.
You know something, even Ghengis Khan offered those he was going to conquer a chance to surrender and submit. If they did he welcomed them into his empire, when they didn’t they got massacred to the last man, woman and child. Some food for thought when you are faced with a much larger and more powerful opponent. Especially one that is fighting on what he considers his own home terf.
Pat,
Sounds good.
I also think it’s important to make the distinction between “Kurdish fighters” and “PKK fighters”. The PKK needs to sneak into Turkey and shoot up the place in order to justify its existence. It does the PKK no good to actually reach a peaceful solution because then they will have lost their raison d’etre. Sadly, they need to drag the rest of the Kurdish people into a mess in order to fulfill there own, selfish aims.
While I believe that a Turkish invasion of N. Iraq will increase sympathy for the PKK movement, I wonder to what extent the PKK continues represent Kurdish causes for independence, autonomy or greater rights within Turkey, for example. I suppose the only way I will figure this out is by traveling down to the area and drinking a lot of tea.
On a side note, did you ever have any contact with a U.S. Army guy by the name of Rusty Rook while you were in Turkey?
Blastingcloud
Good point about the distinction for sure, the PKK are NOT the Pesh Merga although some members may have served in the Pesh Merga.
Sorry, never met a Rusty Rook, but hey, if you go, the tea isn’t bad, at least I liked it after a bit!
Speaking tea things, while I was there one of the elderly Kurdish troopers compared tea with life. They would boil the tea three times before using more. So the old guy said that “Tea is like life, at first it is sweet and wonderful like life when you are young, next dry and boring like when you are middle aged, then finally bitter like death at the end.”
Sorta poetic huh!
Cheers
Edit by MvdG: you are defending a terrorist organization. That’s not only in breach with the law - Dutch law as you’re operating from the Netherlands - I will also not accept it at this blog.
You may like to know that I spoke to someone today that has been in mobile phone contact with guerillas of the PKK in the Qandil Mountains and the guerillas say that moral has never been higher and that “hundreds” of ‘Peshmerga’ fighters are joining the PKK in droves ready to fight the Turkish army should they make the folly of invading.
And by the way, I am not ‘operating’ as you so dramatically describe it, from Holland.
I live in England and have stood outside the houses of parliament with a T Shirt saying ‘I am the PKK’ and was not arrested.
I wish someone would arrest me so we could have our day in court and expose the so called ‘anti terror’ laws as a complete ass, in regards to the PKK.