Positive news from Iran today. Hashemi Rafsanjani, head of the increasingly influential Expediency Committee, and former Iranian President, has been chosen to head the powerful Assembly of Experts in the Islamic Republic. Rafsanjani, considered to be a more moderate and reform minded politician, now has control over two of the numerous checks over the Iranian regime:
In Tuesday’s election, Rafsanjani defeated Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, an extremist within the hard-line camp, to become chairman of the body of 86 senior clerics empowered with monitoring Iran’s supreme leader, state-run television reported. Rafsanjani succeeds Ayatollah Ali Meshkini, who died in July.
Analysts said the election showed that more moderate conservatives like Rafsanjani were gaining ground in Iran, where there is increasing discontent with the ruling hard-liners over rising tensions with the West, a worsening economy and price hikes in basic commodities and housing. Ahmadinejad’s allies were humiliated in December local elections, in which moderate conservatives won a big victory.
“Rafsanjani’s election is yet another no to the fossilized extremists such as Jannati and Mesbah Yazdi. Given differences between Rafsanjani and Khamenei, the election of Rafsanjani is seen as a challenge to the supreme leader,” said political analyst Hamid Reza Shokouhi, referring to Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, who is Ahmadinejad’s spiritual mentor.
While extremists such as Jannati are among the proponents of the theory that the legitimacy of Iran’s clerics to rule the country is derived from God, Rafsanjani is believed to side with pro-democracy reformers who believe the government’s authority is derived from popular elections.
This certainly is good news, however we mustn’t overstate its significance. It’s worth mentioning that the Assembly of Experts only meets once a year, and is held accountable by the Guardians Council. As I’ve discussed in the past, The Supreme Leader appoints half of this body’s members, which has a direct influence over who is deemed best suited to run for the Assembly, as well as serving as a monitor of their activity. For all the hype thrusted upon the Assembly of Experts, we often forget their own stunted abilities. The Assembly has never (to my knowledge) spoken against Khamenei, so such a gesture would in fact be truly “revolutionary” (no pun intended).
This is also seen as a blow for Ahmadinejad. Far from it. As I’ve also argued in the past, Ahmadinejad is perhaps the most politically savvy president ever witnessed in post-Revolution Iran. While insider operatives like Rafsanjani consolidate power at the top, Ahmadinejad knows how to garner support at the grassroots.
The reigning Iranian President may have taken a hit in his popularity, but he has a much larger political base than Rafsanjani (whom, as a reminder, could not get elected to the Majlis from his home province of Tehran).Â
I’ve made the case before, and I’ll restate it here–a weaker Supreme Leader could lead to a stronger presidential executive. The constitution states that Ahmadinejad is the second most powerful figure in the country. If Khamenei is weakened (or even removed), it’ll leave a power vacuum. Ahmadinejad is tied to the conservative elements that still influence the Assembly. He is a former member of the Revolutionary Guard, with close ties to their infrastructure. And again, unlike Rafsanjani, he knows how to build genuinely popular support.
Much will rest on economic conditions in the Republic, but if you believe recent trends and indicators, it would appear as if Ahmadinejad may have some campaign fodder.
(Cross posted at my blog)
