The Des Moines Register gives us the following: Clinton, Giuliani lead new Iowa caucus poll
National frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani topped a new Iowa poll by American Research Group, a survey that differs significantly from a poll last week of likely caucusgoers in the leadoff nominating state.
First for the Democrats:
Clinton, the Democrats’ leader in national polls, received support from 30 percent, according to the new Iowa survey. The New York senator received 22 percent, good for second place, in last week’s poll of Iowa Democratic caucusgoers, sponsored by KCCI Channel 8 in Des Moines.
Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who has led in most early Iowa surveys, received support from 21 percent in the ARG poll, followed by Illinois Sen. Barack Obama with 15 percent. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson was in a close fourth place with 13 percent. Delaware Sen. Joe Biden received support from 3 percent. No other candidate received support from more than 2 percent.
Fifteen percent were undecided in the poll of 600 likely Democratic caucusgoers taken July 26-30. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
This shows that Clinton just may be solidifying her support among Iowa Democrats in a way that more closely mirrors the national polls than before. Maybe her mini dust-up with Obama, which I felt was much ado about nothing really, has had some effect. If that is true it might say something about the shallowness of the Obama appeal. (Please note all the caveats there.)
In general this pictures the Democratic horse race as a four tier affair:
1st Tier: Your pack leader Clinton.
2nd Tier: All alone in second place, John Edwards. His hard core support seems solid.
3rd Tier: Obama and Bill Richardson. That Richardson can be mentioned with Obama at this point says something about how Richardson has raised the sights of his campaign. The Obama juggernaut wasn’t supposed to be down here.
4th Tier: Everyone else badly trailing the field. None too surprising really.
On to the GOP:
For Republicans, Giuliani received support from 22 percent, after finishing in third place with 13 percent in the KCCI poll.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who led in the KCCI poll with 25 percent, placed second in the new poll with 21 percent. In third place was Arizona Sen. John McCain at 17 percent, up 4 percentage points from ARG’s June poll despite losing more than half of his iowa campaign staff amid the campaign’s financial crisis.
Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson was in fourth with 13 percent. Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich was in fifth at 4 percent. Neither Thompson nor Gingrich have entered the race, although Thompson is expected to announce his candidacy in the coming weeks.
All other candidates received support from 2 percent or less in the survey of 600 likely GOP caucusgoers conducted July 26-30. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Fifteen percent were undecided.
Looks like a three tier race at the moment.
1st Tier: Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. Actually, given a 4 point margin of error neither Giuliani or Romney can claim a lead.
2nd Tier: John McCain and Fred Thompson. I debated putting McCain in the top tier since the MoE had him pretty close. It does seem likely that the bleeding has stopped for the moment. If news from Iraq continues to improve McCain could shoot forward. Thompson needs to declare already. The whole flavor of the month things is fading fast.
3rd Tier: Everyone else barely registering on the scale. That a non-declared non-candidate like Gingrich can still out poll Ron Paul in a caucus state (where organization can matter quite a bit more) seems to indicate that whatever Republicans think of Ron Paul they are not thinking of him for the Presidency.
It isn’t that these polls are very important in and of themselves, but they can give a sense of where support is congealing. Of all the candidates only Hillary Clinton can say that is happening at the moment. All else is flux.
“Of all the candidates only Hillary Clinton can say that is happening at the moment.”
Or not.
You can argue that Iowa means more since it is a caucus state and therefore better reflects The Machine, but considering how so many states have moved up their primaries it’ll be interesting to see if that matters as much. I am cautiously optimistic that there will be more general participation in selecting candidates this year since both Romney and Obama have much more popular support than party structure support.
Yeah, but isn’t that exactly the sort of thing we read about Obama three months ago as well? (And the month before that, etc.)
Of course it is still early, but I can’t say I see any Obama “surge” in the offing. There are no externals that can really punch up his standing, and if the Democratic debates continue in their Love-Fest mode he won’t get a lot of oportunities to seperate himself.
Of course, just like McCain, Clinton would probably be boosted by good news from Iraq as well. I’m sure she wouldn’t mind doing a modified back-flip in the other direction. It would at least dampen the “netroot” negatives.
Oh, I should add that my tiers only reflect the race in Iowa. (I did not spell that out, so it could lead to confusion.)
I’m not sure that the Democrats are still in “Love Fest” mode; after all, Obama and Clinton had that spat about foreign policy just last week. Perhaps the contentious phase is beginning.
Yeah. I mentioned that little spat… but I wonder if a bigger deal was made of that than it deserved because there had been so little other friction.
The political junkie in me would love to see both parties “mix it up” a little more. For now that has been left to the fringe characters and that just isn’t as interesting. They, after all, have very little to lose. I mean is Paul really risking anything if he were to lose half his support and go from 2% to 1% in the polls?